Bush fires

Drought may threaten within decades

For the world’s growing population these are the most fearsome maps you will see.

The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai. The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.

coming droughts

In 5 years we will have ‘lost for ever’ unless …..

The world is headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns, and if fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will ‘lose for ever’ the opportunity to avoid dangerous climate change
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change

Worst ever carbon emissions-  Record rise, despite recession, means 2C target would be exceeded
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower

Professor Lord Stern of the London School of Economics, the author of the influential Stern Report into the economics of climate change, warned that if the pattern continued, the results would be dire. “These figures indicate that [emissions] are now close to being back on a ‘business as usual’ path. According to the IPCC projections, such a path … would mean a 50% chance of a rise in global average temperature of more than 4C by 2100 ,”

For scenarios at each degree average global temperature increase, read this.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-five-climate-scenarios

Business as usual with more than 7 billion people is horrible.
3C has become increasingly likely:
Extracts from this report are:

“After a 3C global temperature rise, global warming may run out of control and efforts to mitigate it may be in vain. Millions of square kilometres of Amazon rainforest could burn down, releasing carbon from the wood, leaves and soil and thus making the warming even worse, perhaps by another 1.5C. In southern Africa, Australia and the western US, deserts take over. Billions of people are forced to move from their traditional agricultural lands, in search of scarcer food and water. Around 30-50% less water is available in Africa and around the Mediterranean. In the UK, summers of droughts are followed by winter floods. Sea levels rise to engulf small islands and low-lying areas such as Florida, New York and London. “

How long have we, rising CO2, and life at 3C

The world is headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns, and If fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will ‘lose for ever’ the opportunity to avoid dangerous climate change
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change

Worst ever carbon emissions-  Record rise, despite recession, means 2C target would be exceeded
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower

Professor Lord Stern of the London School of Economics, the author of the influential Stern Report into the economics of climate change, warned that if the pattern continued, the results would be dire. “These figures indicate that [emissions] are now close to being back on a ‘business as usual’ path. According to the IPCC projections, such a path … would mean a 50% chance of a rise in global average temperature of more than 4C by 2100 ,”

For scenarios at each degree average global temperature increase, read this.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-five-climate-scenarios

Business as usual with 7 billion people is horrible. 3C has become increasingly likely: Extracts from this report are:
“After a 3C global temperature rise, global warming may run out of control and efforts to mitigate it may be in vain. Millions of square kilometres of Amazon rainforest could burn down, releasing carbon from the wood, leaves and soil and thus making the warming even worse, perhaps by another 1.5C. In southern Africa, Australia and the western US, deserts take over. Billions of people are forced to move from their traditional agricultural lands, in search of scarcer food and water. Around 30-50% less water is available in Africa and around the Mediterranean. In the UK, summers of droughts are followed by winter floods. Sea levels rise to engulf small islands and low-lying areas such as Florida, New York and London. “